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Volume XV (2004)
Book Review: Dancing with Saddam: The Strategic
Tango of Jordanian-Iraqi Relations
Moshe Gershovich Department of History, University of
Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, NE 68182
Schenker, David. Dancing With Saddam: The Strategic Tango of
Jordanian-Iraqi Relations. London, Boulder, New York, Oxford:
Lexington Books, 2003. Co-published with The Washington Institute for
Near East Policy. 128pp. $50.00 (cloth).
Seldom does a book become obsolete shortly after (or even before)
appearing in print. This dubious notoriety seems to befall the book
under review as its publication happened to coincide with the United
States invasion of Iraq in Spring 2003 and the subsequent toppling of
the Saddam Hussein regime. It is after all difficult to tango with an
interlocker who is confined to a prison cell, awaiting trial. It is very
tempting therefore to dismiss Dancing with Saddam as irrelevant,
an example of the rapidly changing "new Middle East," where yesterday’s
realities may quickly turn into tomorrow’s anachronism. However, passing
so harsh a judgment may be premature in this case. In spite of its
apparent weaknesses, a closer scrutiny of this volume may prove useful
to our understanding of the post-Iraq War regional realities,
particularly insofar as the future of the Hashimite Kingdom of Jordan is
concerned.
David Schenker is a
Middle East policy advisor in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of
Defense and former research fellow of the Washington Institute for Near
East Policy. This study is the product of research he conducted between
1999 and 2001 under the auspice of that institute. It is based in part
on confidential conversations with "dozens of Jordanian politicians,
businessmen, intellectuals, and royals" (p. vii) as well as printed
media sources and a litany of statistical data gathered during the
author’s stay in Amman. It can therefore be regarded as a valid
representation of Jordanian public opinion towards bilateral relations
with Iraq during a crucial period in the history of Jordan: the
transmission of power from the late King Hussein to his son Abdullah.
The interest in
deciphering Jordanian attitudes towards Iraq in the 1980s and 1990s
derives from an apparent shift in the kingdom’s foreign policy during
the crisis that had led to the Gulf War of 1991 and its aftermath. A
loyal and consistent American (previously British) ally for most of his
four and a half decades on the throne, King Hussein surprised many in
the summer of 1990 when he assumed a position of friendly neutrality
towards Iraq after it had occupied Kuwait. The ambivalent Jordanian
stance towards the future of Iraq continued throughout most of the 1990s
and into the early reign of Abdullah and the 2003 war.
Schenker’s thesis is
plain and well articulated. Over the course of the past two decades or
so, Iraq has become Jordan’s main economic partner. Jordan serves "as
Iraq’s principal entrepôt" and it "has become economically dependent on
Iraq" (p. 1). However, the ties between these two nations go well beyond
economics alone. They share "very strong feelings of amity" (p. 6).
Indeed, "Iraq is one of the few subjects on which most all
Jordanians—East Bankers and Palestinians alike—agree" (ibid).
The book is divided into
four chapters. The first, entitled "History and Common Identity"
attempts to trace the historical ties between the two countries from the
Arab Revolt of World War I to the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s and beyond.
This is clearly the weakest part of the book since Schenker’s command of
the two countries’ history is very limited. It is dotted with hollow and
occasionally inaccurate statements, such as the characterization of "[t]he
peoples of what would later become Jordan and Iraq" as "comrades in
arms" against the Ottoman Empire (p. 7). Otherwise the reference to the
relations between the two countries prior to the 1990s is scant. It is
interesting to note that the shortlived union between the two countries,
forged in early 1958 and terminated after the Iraqi coup that ended
Hashimite rule over the country, is mentioned only once, in a
coincidental manner, as Schenker cites an unidentified former Jordanian
minister who "opined that Iraqis harbor a deep guilt about the slaughter
of the Iraqi royals in 1958" (p. 23).
The second chapter,
entitled "Economics," is much better researched and its conclusions
should be of interest to readers of current Middle Eastern politics.
Schenker identifies correctly the structural weaknesses of Jordan’s
economy and the manner in which its symbiotic relationship with its
Iraqi counterpart helps alleviate some of them. Iraq’s supply of cheap
oil to its neighbor to the west has been "the lubricant" of this
bilateral economic relationship and it has formed "Jordan’s greatest
source of foreign aid" during the 1980s and 1990s (p. 31). Meanwhile,
during the long years of its war with Iran and international isolation
following the war of 1991, Iraq relied on Jordanian supply of imported
goods, allowing the Hashimite Kingdom to develop an "impressive
transport industry" (p. 46). However, the declining traffic of such
goods during the second half of the 1990s threatened to have a
detrimental effect on Jordan’s sole port city of Aqaba.
Iraq’s superior economic
position allowed Saddam Hussein to use bilateral trade as a tool with
which to manipulate the Jordanian political system. Schenker’s main
contribution perhaps could be found in the third chapter of the book,
entitled "Pro-Iraq Elements in Jordan," in which he identifies various
groups and individuals that promoted closer ties with Baghdad and
attempted to influence their country’s policy in that direction. Saddam,
it seems, was very successful in acquiring such good will with a blend
of lavish spending, propaganda, and intimidation. The Iraq lobby in
Amman included a variety of professional associations (most notably
representatives of the printed and audio-visual media), economic
interests (such as the Amman Chamber of Commerce), student unions (by
the 1980s, about 5,000 Jordanians were enrolled in Iraqi universities,
"comprising about 10 percent of Jordan’s total higher education
enrollment" [p. 73]), and Islamist advocacy groups.
The last chapter deals
with "The Abdullah Era" and the manner in which he has attempted to
follow his father’sfootsteps in maintaining the delicate balance between
Iraq and the USA (not to mention Jordan’s other neighbors, Syria,
Israel, and Saudi Arabia) in a manner that would most benefit the
kingdom and assure the stability of his regime. Writing his study "as
U.S.-Iraq war clouds begin to gather," Schenker assessed Abdullah’s
approach as "trying to improve ties with both simultaneously" (p. 92).
Assessing his concluding remarks the young monarch’s likely conduct in
the eventuality of a war, Schenker predicted, correctly, that unlike his
late father, who had been "compelled to toe ‘neutral’ line during the
Gulf War, it is almost inconceivable that King Abdullah would not
(quietly) align himself with the West" (p. 108).
In the aftermath of the
war in Iraq, as the U.S.-led coalition continues in its efforts to
suppress the indigenous insurgency and usher in a functioning, stable,
democratically elected government, regional states like Jordan may and
play an important role in the process. Therefore, even though much of
the data gathered for Dancing with Saddam may seem outdated, it
could serve as the basis for assessing current and future Jordanian
policies towards post-Saddam Iraq. Schenker ought to be encouraged to
undertake follow-up research in that direction, assuming he has not
become engaged in it already.
Volume XV |